Most tools answer this with a ranking, which implies a certainty the data does not contain. This one gives you the split — how often each player actually finishes ahead — and draws both distributions so you can see how much of the decision is real.
Receptions distribution is a negative binomial with PHI=1.45, checked against 49,202 projection/line pairs: predicted vs realized agrees to +0.001 overall and within 0.012 in every decile · projections as-of-week with no lookahead