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What is snap share, and why does it matter more than last week's points?
It is the share of his team's offensive plays a player was on the field for — and it is the most repeatable thing a player has.
A team runs roughly 60 offensive plays a game. Snap share is the percentage of them a given player was on the field for. A full-time starter sits around 85-95%; a rotational player nearer 40%.
It matters because it is the most stable signal available. Measured across this project’s data, comparing the first half of a player’s season against the second:
| Statistic | Repeats at |
|---|---|
| Snap share | 0.98 |
| Carries per game | 0.98 |
| Target share | 0.96 |
| Receptions per game | 0.94 |
| Touchdowns per game | 0.72 |
Everything near the top is how much work he gets. The thing at the bottom is what he did with it. That is not a claim about talent, it is about sample size — a receiver runs thirty routes a week and scores roughly once a month, so his touchdown rate is mostly noise over any short stretch.
The practical form: when a player has a huge week, look at whether his playing time moved. If it did, something real changed. If his snaps are unchanged and only the box score moved, you are looking at the top of a bounce — measured here, a player running far above his own established level gives back most of it the following week.