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Who keeps clearing the number

A projection is one number and hides its own shape. Two players can both project four receptions — one catching 4, 5, 4, 5 and the other 0, 9, 1, 8 — and for anyone reading a line that difference is the whole question. This page shows the record behind the number, over each player’s last 8 games.

Against a round number

Round thresholds a reader already thinks in, for the players a book has not priced this week. A long run here means the threshold is soft for that player — it is a statement about the number, not a forecast.

PlayerMarketNumberGames clearedHow oftenStatus
Christian McCaffrey SF · RBreceptions3.5+8 of 8100%—
Jaylen Warren PIT · RBrush attempts9.5+8 of 8100%—
Kyren Williams LA · RBrush attempts9.5+8 of 8100%—
Luther Burden III CHI · WRreceptions2.5+8 of 8100%—
Nico Collins HOU · WRreceptions2.5+8 of 8100%OUT · out
Puka Nacua LA · WRreceptions4.5+8 of 8100%OUT · out
Aaron Jones MIN · RBrush attempts9.5+7 of 888%—
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WRreceiving yards49.5+7 of 888%—
Bijan Robinson ATL · RBrush attempts15.5+7 of 888%—
Bijan Robinson ATL · RBrushing yards69.5+7 of 888%—
Breece Hall NYJ · RBrush attempts12.5+7 of 888%QUESTIONABLE · questionable
Brock Bowers LV · TEreceptions3.5+7 of 888%—
Bucky Irving TB · RBrushing yards39.5+7 of 888%—
CeeDee Lamb DAL · WRreceptions4.5+7 of 888%—
CeeDee Lamb DAL · WRreceiving yards39.5+7 of 888%—
Chase Brown CIN · RBreceptions2.5+7 of 888%—
Chase Brown CIN · RBrushing yards49.5+7 of 888%—
Chris Godwin Jr. TB · WRreceptions2.5+7 of 888%—
Christian McCaffrey SF · RBrush attempts9.5+7 of 888%—
Christian Watson GB · WRreceptions2.5+7 of 888%—
Dalton Schultz HOU · TEreceptions2.5+7 of 888%—
Derrick Henry BAL · RBrush attempts15.5+7 of 888%—
Derrick Henry BAL · RBrushing yards69.5+7 of 888%—
Devaughn Vele NO · WRreceptions2.5+7 of 888%—
DK Metcalf PIT · WRreceptions2.5+7 of 888%—
George Pickens DAL · WRreceptions2.5+7 of 888%—
James Cook BUF · RBrush attempts12.5+7 of 888%—
Javonte Williams DAL · RBrush attempts9.5+7 of 888%—
Jaylen Warren PIT · RBrushing yards39.5+7 of 888%—
Jonathan Taylor IND · RBrush attempts15.5+7 of 888%—
Kenneth Walker III KC · RBrush attempts15.5+7 of 888%—
Michael Wilson ARI · WRreceiving yards49.5+7 of 888%—
Nico Collins HOU · WRreceiving yards49.5+7 of 888%OUT · out
Quinshon Judkins CLE · RBrush attempts9.5+7 of 888%—
Rashee Rice KC · WRreceptions3.5+7 of 888%—
Rome Odunze CHI · WRreceiving yards39.5+7 of 888%—
Sam LaPorta DET · TEreceiving yards39.5+7 of 888%—
Saquon Barkley PHI · RBrush attempts12.5+7 of 888%—
Stefon Diggs WAS · WRreceptions2.5+7 of 888%—
Tee Higgins CIN · WRreceiving yards49.5+7 of 888%—
Tony Pollard TEN · RBrush attempts12.5+7 of 888%—
Tyler Warren IND · TEreceptions2.5+7 of 888%—
Aaron Jones MIN · RBrushing yards39.5+6 of 875%—
Adonai Mitchell NYJ · WRreceptions2.5+6 of 875%OUT · out
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WRreceptions5.5+6 of 875%—
Ashton Jeanty LV · RBrush attempts15.5+6 of 875%—
Ashton Jeanty LV · RBrushing yards39.5+6 of 875%—
Bijan Robinson ATL · RBreceptions2.5+6 of 875%—
Bucky Irving TB · RBrush attempts12.5+6 of 875%—
Cade Otton TB · TEreceptions2.5+6 of 875%—
Cam Skattebo NYG · RBrush attempts12.5+6 of 875%—
Cam Skattebo NYG · RBrushing yards49.5+6 of 875%—
Chase Brown CIN · RBrush attempts12.5+6 of 875%—
Chris Olave NO · WRreceptions5.5+6 of 875%—
Chris Olave NO · WRreceiving yards69.5+6 of 875%—
Colston Loveland CHI · TEreceptions2.5+6 of 875%—
Courtland Sutton DEN · WRreceptions2.5+6 of 875%—
Dallas Goedert PHI · TEreceptions2.5+6 of 875%OUT · out
Dalton Kincaid BUF · TEreceptions2.5+6 of 875%—
D'Andre Swift CHI · RBrush attempts12.5+6 of 875%—
None of this is an edge. A sportsbook has seen exactly the same games. And measured across 2019–2025, a player running far above his own established level gives back 1.28 receptions the following week — so a long run is, if anything, a reason for caution. Slate Stats does not take bets and none of this is advice.

Window is the last 8 games with a row, which can cross a season boundary — a rate spanning two seasons is not the same thing as one inside a single season · lines are scoped to games that have not kicked off, from the most recent capture · books post player props close to kickoff, so early in a week most players have no line