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Luther Burden III

Chicago Bears · Wide receiverWR1

Over 17 games last season Luther Burden III averaged 3.1 receptions and 42 yards on 42% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
4.0
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
47
Anytime TD
31%
red-zone role (+0.07)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

4%010%116%218%316%413%59%66%74%82%910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————4.0 projected
26 wk3PHI—32.4%117611713.7 +3.3
26 wk2MIN57%23.3%7332000—
26 wk1CAR73%19.2%5563120—
25 wk20LA53%16.7%7324100—
25 wk19GB63%15.2%73421-40—
25 wk18DET62%13.8%43351100—
25 wk17SF58%23.1%98138001—
25 wk15CLE39%25.9%7684000—
25 wk14GB71%21.4%6467130—
25 wk13PHI51%18.8%6433130—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions14 of 1974%
5+ receptions3 of 1916%
7+ receptions1 of 195%
50+ receiving yards7 of 1937%
75+ receiving yards3 of 1916%
100+ receiving yards2 of 1911%
Scored a touchdown2 of 1911%

Career by season

Luther Burden III: snap share and target share by season02040608010020252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far35.052.07.7165%25.0%
2025173.142.24.4242%13.4%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Luther Burden III sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CHI room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Chicago Bears roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4