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Studies
One question per page, answered against every regular-season snap from 2018 onward. Each carries its sample size and test statistic, and each says plainly where the evidence stops.
Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real traitIs the “year 3 breakout” for wide receivers real?No — year 2 is the jumpDo underdogs really throw more?Barely — favorites run moreDoes a rookie quarterback hurt his receivers?That gap is the roster, not the rookieAre players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDoes playing indoors boost receiving production?Yes — for wide receivers onlyDo some receivers genuinely beat man coverage?Not a traitWhat actually predicts fantasy production?Opportunity, not efficiencyDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptionsWho actually gets the work when a starter sits?His own position groupDoes bad weather hurt fantasy production?Real, and smallDoes a hot streak keep going?It reversesDoes a receiver struggle in his first season with a new team?His role is less predictableDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?BarelyDoes a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDoes a fast 40-yard dash mean more fantasy production?For tight ends onlyDo offenses attack rookie cornerbacks?Yes — and starting a receiver for it losesDoes the referee affect fantasy scoring?Predictable, and far too smallDoes draft capital still matter after a rookie season?For the middle, and it buys snaps