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Does a receiver struggle in his first season with a new team?
Verdict — His role is less predictableHis production becomes harder to predict. A receiver who stays put carries his snap share forward at 0.80; one who changes teams carries it at 0.62. The role is what breaks, not the player.
Free agency is treated as though a receiver arrives with his numbers attached. What travels with him is his ability. What does not travel is the job — the route he ran, the share he commanded, the snaps he was given.
| Group | Receptions carry over | Snap share carries over | Season pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stayed put | 0.83 | 0.80 | 636 |
| Changed teams | 0.70 | 0.62 | 211 |
Snap share is the piece that breaks, and that is the tell. If the drop-off were about a receiver declining, catch rate and yards per target would fall with it. Instead the thing that moves most is how often he is on the field — a decision made by a coaching staff that did not draft him.
It is the same shape as what happens after a coaching change, where a team’s historical target distribution stops predicting the next season almost entirely. The staff decides who gets thrown to, and a receiver in a new building is starting that argument from the beginning.
How this was measured
Receiver-seasons with at least eight games are paired with the same receiver’s following season, also eight or more games, and split on whether the team changed. Correlations are across the pair within each group. 2018–2025.