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Does bad weather hurt fantasy production?
Verdict — Real, and smallYes, and less than people think. Rain or snow costs a pass-catcher -0.259 receptions against his own recent form, and wind of 15mph or more costs -0.122. Both are real. Neither is a reason to bench a starter.
A forecast is the easiest thing in the world to over-read. The useful question is not whether bad weather hurts — it does — but by how much, measured against what the same player does in ordinary conditions.
| Condition | Change in receptions | t | Player-games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rain or snow | -0.259 | -2.3 | 295 |
| Wind 15mph+ | -0.122 | -3.6 | 2,750 |
| Dry, outdoors | -0.029 | -2.7 | 28,024 |
A quarter of a reception is a quarter of a reception. For a player you were starting anyway, that is not a decision. It matters at the margin between two similar options, and it matters more for totals than for any individual.
One caveat we would rather state than bury: our precipitation is measured from what actually fell, not from what was forecast on the morning. Some of this effect is therefore unforecast rain, which is exactly the part nobody could have acted on.
How this was measured
Each player-game is compared with that player’s own previous four games, so this is a paired within-player measure rather than a comparison between different players. Conditions come from hourly weather at the stadium. Indoor games are separated out rather than counted as dry. 2018–2026.