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Chicago Bears
This is a top-heavy committee. Luther Burden III holds 25.0% of the targets, and the 12 tracked pass-catchers project for 22 receptions and 237 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III WR1 | 65% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 47 | who benefits |
| Kalif Raymond WR2 | 61% | 24.0% | 3.6 | 46 | who benefits |
| Rome Odunze WR3 | 66% | 14.2% | 3.5 | 45 | — |
| Jahdae Walker WR depth | 27% | 1.9% | 0.1 | 7 | — |
| Zavion Thomas WR depth | 3% | 1.5% | 0.7 | 1 | — |
| Kaden Davis WR depth | 13% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 1 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland TE1 | 86% | 9.8% | 3.3 | 29 | who benefits |
| Cole Kmet TE2 | 63% | 5.9% | 1.7 | 19 | who benefits |
| Sam Roush TE3 | 22% | 4.3% | 0.7 | 10 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift RB1 | 62% | 9.8% | 2.3 | 20 | who benefits |
| Kyle Monangai RB2 | 38% | 4.8% | 1.5 | 11 | who benefits |
| Roschon Johnson RB3 | 1% | 0.0% | 0.1 | -1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 27 carries and 124 rushing yards, with D'Andre Swift taking 60% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift RB | 16.1 | 75 | 4.65 | 44% |
| Kyle Monangai RB | 10.6 | 50 | 4.70 | 18% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.