Slate Stats › NFL › Injury impact
If D'Andre Swift is out, who gets his targets?
The Chicago Bears room absorbs +0.94 receptions, and Kyle Monangai takes the largest single share at +0.83. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III WR · 65% snaps | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Kalif Raymond WR · 61% snaps | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Rome Odunze WR · 66% snaps | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Colston Loveland TE · 86% snaps | 3.30 | 3.34 | +0.04 |
| D'Andre Swift RB · 62% snaps | 2.30 | — | OUT |
| Cole Kmet TE · 63% snaps | 1.70 | 1.74 | +0.04 |
| Kyle Monangai RB · 38% snaps | 1.10 | 1.93 | +0.83 |
| Sam Roush TE · 22% snaps | 0.80 | 0.83 | +0.03 |
| Zavion Thomas WR · 3% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Kaden Davis WR · 13% snaps | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
D'Andre Swift’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection