D'Andre Swift

Chicago Bears · Running backRB1

Over 18 games last season D'Andre Swift averaged 2.0 receptions and 19 yards on 58% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.3

0.3 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

16.1

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

44%

third-down role (+0.05)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.3 projected
26 wk3	PHI	—	8.8%	3	2	4	20	84	0	2.5 -0.5
26 wk2	MIN	68%	16.7%	5	5	54	16	45	0	—
26 wk1	CAR	57%	3.8%	1	1	10	18	124	3	—
25 wk20	LA	62%	0.0%	0	0	0	19	76	0	—
25 wk19	GB	50%	4.3%	2	2	38	13	54	1	—
25 wk18	DET	58%	6.9%	2	1	8	10	40	0	—
25 wk17	SF	59%	7.7%	3	2	25	9	54	2	—
25 wk16	GB	55%	6.9%	2	2	12	13	58	0	—
25 wk15	CLE	56%	3.7%	1	1	-2	18	98	2	—
25 wk14	GB	57%	14.3%	4	3	19	13	63	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 20	35%
5+ receptions	2 of 20	10%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 20	10%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	10 of 20	50%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.7	22.7	3.0	18.0	84.3	3	62%	9.8%
2025	18	2.0	18.7	2.8	14.2	67.6	11	58%	8.6%
2024	17	2.5	22.7	3.1	14.9	56.4	6	67%	10.1%
2023	17	2.5	14.5	3.1	14.1	63.7	6	59%	9.8%
2022	14	3.4	27.8	5.0	7.1	38.7	8	42%	15.0%
2021	13	4.8	34.8	6.0	11.6	47.5	7	66%	18.4%
2020	13	3.5	27.5	4.4	8.8	40.1	10	48%	12.9%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If D'Andre Swift sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CHI room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Chicago Bears roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4