Rome Odunze

Chicago Bears · Wide receiverWR3

Over 14 games last season Rome Odunze averaged 3.4 receptions and 54 yards on 86% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.5

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

15%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.5 projected
26 wk3	PHI	—	17.6%	6	3	44	0	3.3 -0.3
26 wk2	MIN	84%	13.3%	4	3	43	0	—
26 wk1	CAR	48%	11.5%	3	2	52	0	—
25 wk20	LA	77%	14.3%	6	2	44	0	—
25 wk19	GB	69%	13.0%	6	2	44	0	—
25 wk13	PHI	80%	18.8%	6	2	8	0	—
25 wk12	PIT	78%	30.0%	9	3	53	0	—
25 wk11	MIN	76%	21.4%	6	2	41	0	—
25 wk10	NYG	78%	27.8%	10	6	86	1	—
25 wk9	CIN	100%	8.8%	3	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 16	50%
5+ receptions	4 of 16	25%
7+ receptions	2 of 16	12%
50+ receiving yards	7 of 16	44%
75+ receiving yards	3 of 16	19%
100+ receiving yards	2 of 16	12%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 16	31%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.7	46.3	4.3	0	66%	14.2%
2025	14	3.4	53.5	7.3	6	86%	22.2%
2024	17	3.2	43.2	5.9	3	84%	18.9%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Chicago Bears roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4