Kyle Monangai

Chicago Bears · Running backRB2

Over 19 games last season Kyle Monangai averaged 1.2 receptions and 12 yards on 41% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.5

0.3 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

10.6

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

18%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5 projected
26 wk3	PHI	—	0.0%	0	0	0	10	31	0	1.7 -1.7
26 wk2	MIN	34%	6.7%	2	2	11	10	47	0	—
26 wk1	CAR	43%	7.7%	2	2	24	10	100	1	—
25 wk20	LA	37%	9.5%	4	4	36	13	36	0	—
25 wk19	GB	46%	6.5%	3	1	22	8	27	0	—
25 wk18	DET	42%	3.4%	1	1	15	6	14	0	—
25 wk17	SF	41%	10.3%	4	3	9	8	38	0	—
25 wk16	GB	45%	13.8%	4	3	43	9	50	0	—
25 wk15	CLE	42%	7.4%	2	0	0	11	33	0	—
25 wk14	GB	41%	7.1%	2	1	0	14	57	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	4 of 21	19%
5+ receptions	0 of 21	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 21	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 21	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 21	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 21	0%
Scored a touchdown	6 of 21	29%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.3	11.7	1.3	10.0	59.3	1	38%	4.8%
2025	19	1.2	11.7	1.9	10.0	44.5	5	41%	6.0%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Kyle Monangai sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CHI room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Chicago Bears roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4