Kalif Raymond

Chicago Bears · Wide receiverWR2

Over 15 games last season Kalif Raymond averaged 1.6 receptions and 19 yards on 37% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.6

2.0 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

28%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.6 projected
26 wk3	PHI	—	20.6%	7	6	90	0	0	1	3.2 +2.8
26 wk2	MIN	62%	16.7%	5	5	40	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	CAR	60%	34.6%	9	8	84	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	CHI	19%	8.3%	3	3	52	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	MIN	9%	6.9%	2	1	5	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	PIT	26%	9.6%	5	4	62	0	0	1	—
25 wk15	LA	17%	2.6%	1	1	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	NYG	40%	5.3%	2	2	37	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	PHI	64%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk10	WAS	54%	12.5%	4	4	49	1	10	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	6 of 17	35%
5+ receptions	2 of 17	12%
7+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
50+ receiving yards	3 of 17	18%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 17	6%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 17	6%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	6.3	71.3	7.0	1	61%	24.0%
2025	15	1.6	19.3	2.0	1	37%	6.0%
2024	13	1.5	19.4	1.9	2	28%	6.7%
2023	17	2.1	28.8	2.6	1	30%	7.6%
2022	17	2.8	36.2	3.8	0	50%	12.1%
2021	16	3.0	36.0	4.4	4	72%	14.0%
2020	16	0.6	11.7	1.0	0	23%	3.2%
2019	10	1.0	21.5	1.3	2	17%	5.2%
2017	8	0.1	1.5	0.1	0	10%	0.4%
2016	4	0.0	0.0	0.5	0	14%	1.6%

10 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Kalif Raymond sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CHI room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Chicago Bears roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4