Slate Stats › NFL › Injury impact
If Cole Kmet is out, who gets his targets?
The Chicago Bears room absorbs +0.48 receptions, and Colston Loveland takes the largest single share at +0.24. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III WR · 65% snaps | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Kalif Raymond WR · 61% snaps | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Rome Odunze WR · 66% snaps | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Colston Loveland TE · 86% snaps | 3.30 | 3.54 | +0.24 |
| D'Andre Swift RB · 62% snaps | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
| Cole Kmet TE · 63% snaps | 1.70 | — | OUT |
| Kyle Monangai RB · 38% snaps | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Zavion Thomas WR · 3% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Sam Roush TE · 22% snaps | 0.70 | 0.94 | +0.24 |
| Kaden Davis WR · 13% snaps | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Cole Kmet’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection