Cole Kmet

Chicago Bears · Tight endTE2

Over 18 games last season Cole Kmet averaged 1.8 receptions and 21 yards on 71% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.7

0.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

14%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7 projected
26 wk3	PHI	—	2.9%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.9 -1.9
26 wk2	MIN	69%	3.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	CAR	57%	11.5%	3	2	35	0	0	1	—
25 wk20	LA	77%	7.1%	3	3	31	0	0	1	—
25 wk19	GB	55%	4.3%	2	0	0	1	1	0	—
25 wk18	DET	89%	10.3%	3	2	16	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	SF	61%	7.7%	3	2	16	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	GB	77%	10.3%	3	2	14	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	CLE	73%	14.8%	4	2	28	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	GB	76%	10.7%	3	2	42	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	4 of 20	20%
5+ receptions	1 of 20	5%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 20	20%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	11.7	1.7	1	63%	5.9%
2025	18	1.8	21.0	2.9	3	71%	9.1%
2024	17	2.8	27.9	3.2	4	87%	9.7%
2023	17	4.3	42.3	5.3	6	77%	18.7%
2022	17	2.9	32.0	4.1	7	94%	18.8%
2021	17	3.5	36.0	5.5	0	84%	17.8%
2020	17	1.8	15.2	2.8	2	58%	8.4%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Cole Kmet sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CHI room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Chicago Bears roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4