Colston Loveland

Chicago Bears · Tight endTE1

Over 18 games last season Colston Loveland averaged 3.9 receptions and 50 yards on 65% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.3

0.6 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

15%

red-zone role (+0.07)

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.3 projected
26 wk3	PHI	—	11.8%	4	4	31	0	0	0	2.7 +1.3
26 wk2	MIN	86%	10.0%	3	1	3	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	CAR	87%	7.7%	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk20	LA	65%	23.8%	10	4	56	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	GB	81%	32.6%	15	8	137	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	DET	91%	44.8%	13	10	91	0	0	1	—
25 wk17	SF	82%	25.6%	10	6	94	0	0	1	—
25 wk16	GB	83%	17.2%	5	3	30	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	CLE	65%	18.5%	5	4	63	1	-2	0	—
25 wk14	GB	59%	17.9%	5	4	29	0	0	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	14 of 20	70%
5+ receptions	4 of 20	20%
7+ receptions	2 of 20	10%
50+ receiving yards	7 of 20	35%
75+ receiving yards	4 of 20	20%
100+ receiving yards	2 of 20	10%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 20	25%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.7	11.3	3.0	0	86%	9.8%
2025	18	3.9	50.3	5.9	6	65%	17.9%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Colston Loveland sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CHI room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Chicago Bears roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4