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DK

Dalton Kincaid

Buffalo Bills · Tight endTE1

Over 14 games last season Dalton Kincaid averaged 3.4 receptions and 49 yards on 39% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.9
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
57
Anytime TD
27%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

4%011%116%218%316%413%59%66%73%82%910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————3.9 projected
26 wk3LAC67%11.5%323803.9 -1.9
26 wk2DET66%28.6%87951—
26 wk1HOU72%21.4%651300—
25 wk20DEN49%15.4%66831—
25 wk19JAX44%14.3%53281—
25 wk18NYJ13%10.7%33480—
25 wk16CLE38%5.6%1000—
25 wk15NE36%15.4%43340—
25 wk14CIN34%18.5%54411—
25 wk10MIA26%7.7%32370—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions12 of 1675%
5+ receptions6 of 1638%
7+ receptions1 of 166%
50+ receiving yards6 of 1638%
75+ receiving yards5 of 1631%
100+ receiving yards3 of 1619%
Scored a touchdown8 of 1650%

Career by season

Dalton Kincaid: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far34.787.75.7168%20.5%
2025143.448.74.3739%14.9%
2024163.132.45.2255%18.6%
2023184.543.25.7363%17.7%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Dalton Kincaid sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BUF room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4