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Buffalo Bills

This is a committee. DJ Moore holds 22.3% of the targets, and the 13 tracked pass-catchers project for 23 receptions and 302 receiving yards in week 4.

Who owns the targets

Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.

22%21%18%15%11%36%DJ MooreDalton KincaidKhalil ShakirTy JohnsonKeon ColemanEveryone else

Receivers

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
DJ Moore WR157%22.3%3.160who benefits
Khalil Shakir WR258%18.1%3.945who benefits
Keon Coleman WR357%10.9%2.834—
Greg Dortch WR depth6%6.8%0.52—
Josh Palmer WR depth34%6.0%1.223—

Tight ends

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
Dalton Kincaid TE168%20.5%3.957who benefits
Dawson Knox TE271%4.9%2.420who benefits
Keleki Latu TE depth7%2.8%0.2-0—
Jackson Hawes TE344%1.3%0.715—

Backs

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
Ty Johnson RB depth23%15.4%2.028—
James Cook RB171%9.6%2.219who benefits
Ray Davis RB310%2.8%0.4-1—
Frank Gore Jr. RB216%1.4%0.1-0—

The ground game

Projected for 18 carries and 88 rushing yards, with James Cook taking 100% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.

PlayerCarriesRush ydsYds/carryAnytime TD
James Cook RB17.8884.9338%
18James Cook

Whose role has changed since last season

Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.

Buffalo Bills snap share changeDalton Kincaid+29.639→68%James Cook+13.358→71%Dawson Knox+12.958→71%Frank Gore Jr.+9.56→16%Ty Johnson-6.630→23%Josh Palmer-14.748→34%Keleki Latu-16.723→7%Greg Dortch-27.134→6%DJ Moore-27.284→57%points of snap share

Ranked by trailing target share, tie-broken on snap share · concentration measured as a Herfindahl index over the tracked room · projections as-of-week with no lookahead