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Buffalo Bills
This is a committee. DJ Moore holds 22.3% of the targets, and the 13 tracked pass-catchers project for 23 receptions and 302 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore WR1 | 57% | 22.3% | 3.1 | 60 | who benefits |
| Khalil Shakir WR2 | 58% | 18.1% | 3.9 | 45 | who benefits |
| Keon Coleman WR3 | 57% | 10.9% | 2.8 | 34 | — |
| Greg Dortch WR depth | 6% | 6.8% | 0.5 | 2 | — |
| Josh Palmer WR depth | 34% | 6.0% | 1.2 | 23 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid TE1 | 68% | 20.5% | 3.9 | 57 | who benefits |
| Dawson Knox TE2 | 71% | 4.9% | 2.4 | 20 | who benefits |
| Keleki Latu TE depth | 7% | 2.8% | 0.2 | -0 | — |
| Jackson Hawes TE3 | 44% | 1.3% | 0.7 | 15 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson RB depth | 23% | 15.4% | 2.0 | 28 | — |
| James Cook RB1 | 71% | 9.6% | 2.2 | 19 | who benefits |
| Ray Davis RB3 | 10% | 2.8% | 0.4 | -1 | — |
| Frank Gore Jr. RB2 | 16% | 1.4% | 0.1 | -0 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 18 carries and 88 rushing yards, with James Cook taking 100% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook RB | 17.8 | 88 | 4.93 | 38% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.