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If DJ Moore is out, who gets his targets?

The Buffalo Bills room absorbs +2.43 receptions, and Josh Palmer takes the largest single share at +0.72. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if DJ Moore sitsJosh Palmer+0.7WR 34% snapsKeon Coleman+0.5WR 57% snapsKhalil Shakir+0.5WR 58% snapsDalton Kincaid+0.2TE 68% snapsDawson Knox+0.1TE 71% snapsJackson Hawes+0.1TE 44% snapsJames Cook+0.1RB 71% snapsTy Johnson+0.1RB 23% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Khalil Shakir WR · 58% snaps3.904.39+0.49
Dalton Kincaid TE · 68% snaps3.904.06+0.16
DJ Moore WR · 57% snaps3.10—OUT
Keon Coleman WR · 57% snaps2.803.30+0.50
Dawson Knox TE · 71% snaps2.402.55+0.15
James Cook RB · 71% snaps2.202.33+0.13
Ty Johnson RB · 23% snaps2.002.13+0.13
Josh Palmer WR · 34% snaps1.201.92+0.72
Jackson Hawes TE · 44% snaps0.700.85+0.15

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

DJ Moore’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4