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DJ Moore

Buffalo Bills · Wide receiverWR1

Over 19 games last season DJ Moore averaged 3.2 receptions and 42 yards on 84% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.1
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
60
Anytime TD
26%
third-down role (+0.05)
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

8%016%120%219%314%410%56%63%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————3.1 projected
26 wk3LAC64%38.5%106670002.7 +3.3
26 wk2DET31%0.0%0001-10—
26 wk1HOU76%28.6%85100001—
25 wk20LA72%19.0%8552181—
25 wk19GB86%15.2%76641-51—
25 wk18DET85%10.3%3111000—
25 wk17SF92%10.3%417000—
25 wk16GB95%24.1%75971121—
25 wk15CLE88%18.5%5469002—
25 wk14GB83%10.7%31-4000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions14 of 2167%
5+ receptions6 of 2129%
7+ receptions0 of 210%
50+ receiving yards9 of 2143%
75+ receiving yards2 of 2110%
100+ receiving yards1 of 215%
Scored a touchdown8 of 2138%

Career by season

DJ Moore: snap share and target share by season020406080100201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.755.76.0157%22.3%
2025193.242.05.3984%16.2%
2024175.856.88.2694%27.1%
2023175.680.28.0991%29.5%
2022173.752.26.9796%28.8%
2021175.568.19.6487%28.5%
2020154.479.57.9487%24.6%
2019155.878.39.0487%24.3%
2018163.449.25.1269%15.1%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If DJ Moore sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BUF room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4