Keon Coleman

Buffalo Bills · Wide receiverWR3

Over 15 games last season Keon Coleman averaged 2.7 receptions and 30 yards on 62% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.8

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

18%

red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.8 projected
26 wk3	LAC	48%	7.7%	2	1	37	0	3.1 -2.1
26 wk2	DET	74%	21.4%	6	6	63	0	—
26 wk1	HOU	50%	3.6%	1	1	1	0	—
25 wk20	DEN	45%	7.7%	3	1	10	1	—
25 wk19	JAX	43%	2.9%	1	1	36	0	—
25 wk18	NYJ	81%	14.3%	4	2	49	0	—
25 wk15	NE	56%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	CIN	28%	11.1%	3	2	16	0	—
25 wk13	PIT	45%	13.0%	3	2	9	1	—
25 wk10	MIA	62%	20.5%	8	3	46	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	9 of 17	53%
5+ receptions	2 of 17	12%
7+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 17	12%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 17	6%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 17	6%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 17	29%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.7	33.7	3.0	0	57%	10.9%
2025	15	2.7	30.0	4.2	5	62%	14.0%
2024	16	2.0	36.1	4.1	4	70%	14.4%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4