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Ray Davis

Buffalo Bills · Running backRB3

Over 19 games last season Ray Davis averaged 0.6 receptions and 6 yards on 16% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.4
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
-1
Anytime TD
14%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

74%018%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.4 projected
26 wk3LAC8%0.0%0000000.4 -0.4
26 wk2DET14%0.0%000000—
26 wk1HOU9%0.0%000130—
25 wk20DEN35%5.1%2233000—
25 wk19JAX32%0.0%000000—
25 wk18NYJ64%7.1%2223211511—
25 wk17PHI13%3.0%1112140—
25 wk16CLE16%11.1%22203140—
25 wk15NE9%3.8%1113000—
25 wk14CIN6%0.0%000000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 210%
5+ receptions0 of 210%
7+ receptions0 of 210%
50+ receiving yards0 of 210%
75+ receiving yards0 of 210%
100+ receiving yards0 of 210%
Scored a touchdown2 of 2110%

Career by season

Ray Davis: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.00.31.0010%0.0%
2025190.66.30.83.114.5216%2.8%
2024200.89.40.96.023.9722%3.5%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4