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JC

James Cook

Buffalo Bills · Running backRB1

Over 19 games last season James Cook averaged 1.9 receptions and 17 yards on 58% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.2
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
19
Rush attempts
17.8
Rushing yards
88
Anytime TD
38%
red-zone role (+0.07)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

16%025%123%216%310%45%53%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.2 projected
26 wk3LAC67%3.8%1002415412.6 -2.6
26 wk2DET74%10.7%314211351—
26 wk1HOU72%14.3%431213570—
25 wk20DEN64%7.7%3224241170—
25 wk19JAX60%8.6%32515460—
25 wk18NYJ3%0.0%0002150—
25 wk17PHI51%12.1%41320740—
25 wk16CLE56%11.1%2117161172—
25 wk15NE67%11.5%324221073—
25 wk14CIN75%7.4%223118800—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions8 of 2138%
5+ receptions2 of 2110%
7+ receptions0 of 210%
50+ receiving yards2 of 2110%
75+ receiving yards0 of 210%
100+ receiving yards0 of 210%
Scored a touchdown10 of 2148%

Career by season

James Cook: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.35.32.719.3115.3271%9.6%
2025191.916.82.418.393.91458%8.2%
2024192.016.92.313.767.42148%7.8%
2023192.724.83.314.466.4655%10.3%
2022181.210.01.85.931.1426%5.1%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If James Cook sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BUF room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4