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Greg Dortch

Buffalo Bills · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 12 games last season Greg Dortch averaged 2.4 receptions and 17 yards on 34% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.5
1.9 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
2
Anytime TD
13%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

67%023%17%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.5 projected
26 wk3LAC8%0.0%0000000.8 -0.8
26 wk2DET5%0.0%000000—
26 wk1HOU—0.0%000000—
25 wk13TB33%5.4%2214000—
25 wk12JAX63%19.6%96532-51—
25 wk11SF66%10.7%6666001—
25 wk10SEA39%0.0%000221—
25 wk9DAL21%0.0%000190—
25 wk7GB9%5.9%225000—
25 wk6IND44%7.7%339001—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions4 of 1429%
5+ receptions2 of 1414%
7+ receptions0 of 140%
50+ receiving yards2 of 1414%
75+ receiving yards0 of 140%
100+ receiving yards0 of 140%
Scored a touchdown4 of 1429%

Career by season

Greg Dortch: snap share and target share by season0204060801002019202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.006%0.0%
2025122.417.22.8434%6.8%
2024172.220.12.9340%9.7%
2023161.517.52.6245%7.9%
2022163.229.24.0244%10.0%
202150.63.00.6012%1.6%
201920.00.00.000%0.0%

7 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4