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If Dalton Kincaid is out, who gets his targets?
The Buffalo Bills room absorbs +1.16 receptions, and Jackson Hawes takes the largest single share at +0.72. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir WR · 58% snaps | 3.90 | 3.97 | +0.07 |
| Dalton Kincaid TE · 68% snaps | 3.90 | — | OUT |
| DJ Moore WR · 57% snaps | 3.10 | 3.17 | +0.07 |
| Keon Coleman WR · 57% snaps | 2.80 | 2.87 | +0.07 |
| Dawson Knox TE · 71% snaps | 2.30 | 2.46 | +0.16 |
| James Cook RB · 71% snaps | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
| Ty Johnson RB · 23% snaps | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Palmer WR · 34% snaps | 1.20 | 1.27 | +0.07 |
| Jackson Hawes TE · 44% snaps | 0.60 | 1.32 | +0.72 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Dalton Kincaid’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection