Josh Palmer

Buffalo Bills · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 12 games last season Josh Palmer averaged 1.8 receptions and 25 yards on 48% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.2

0.7 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

20%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2 projected
26 wk3	LAC	32%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	1.3 -1.3
26 wk2	DET	38%	10.7%	3	1	43	1	—
26 wk1	HOU	31%	7.1%	2	1	34	1	—
25 wk18	NYJ	84%	10.7%	3	1	1	0	—
25 wk17	PHI	50%	6.1%	2	1	12	0	—
25 wk16	CLE	70%	5.6%	1	1	2	0	—
25 wk15	NE	33%	7.7%	2	1	16	0	—
25 wk12	HOU	50%	12.5%	4	2	21	0	—
25 wk11	TB	50%	16.7%	5	2	17	0	—
25 wk6	ATL	11%	7.7%	2	2	60	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	1 of 14	7%
5+ receptions	1 of 14	7%
7+ receptions	0 of 14	0%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 14	14%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 14	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 14	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 14	14%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	25.7	1.7	2	34%	6.0%
2025	12	1.8	25.2	3.1	0	48%	10.2%
2024	15	2.6	38.9	4.3	1	66%	14.6%
2023	10	3.8	58.1	6.1	2	75%	17.7%
2022	17	4.4	47.1	6.6	3	81%	16.5%
2021	17	1.9	20.8	2.9	4	38%	7.6%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4