Frank Gore Jr.

Buffalo Bills · Running backRB2

Frank Gore Jr. has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 2 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.1

0.3 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

-0

Anytime TD

14%

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.1 projected
26 wk2	DET	12%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	HOU	19%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	3	0	—
25 wk20	DEN	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	JAX	6%	2.9%	1	1	6	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 4 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 4	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 4	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 4	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 4	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 4	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 4	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 4	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	16%	0.0%
2025	2	0.5	3.0	0.5	0	6%	1.4%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4