Khalil Shakir

Buffalo Bills · Wide receiverWR2

Over 18 games last season Khalil Shakir averaged 5.1 receptions and 49 yards on 61% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.9

1.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

24%

red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.9 projected
26 wk3	LAC	73%	11.5%	3	1	6	0	4.5 -3.5
26 wk2	DET	49%	21.4%	6	3	38	0	—
26 wk1	HOU	53%	21.4%	6	4	50	0	—
25 wk20	DEN	64%	23.1%	9	7	75	0	—
25 wk19	JAX	71%	34.3%	12	12	82	0	—
25 wk17	PHI	78%	21.2%	7	6	35	0	—
25 wk16	CLE	48%	27.8%	5	4	34	0	—
25 wk15	NE	69%	19.2%	5	5	65	0	—
25 wk14	CIN	50%	11.1%	3	2	16	1	—
25 wk13	PIT	49%	17.4%	4	1	5	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	16 of 20	80%
5+ receptions	11 of 20	55%
7+ receptions	5 of 20	25%
50+ receiving yards	9 of 20	45%
75+ receiving yards	4 of 20	20%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 20	20%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.7	31.3	5.0	0	58%	18.1%
2025	18	5.1	48.7	6.4	4	61%	22.0%
2024	18	5.2	55.3	6.7	4	62%	23.6%
2023	19	2.6	36.1	3.0	4	53%	9.3%
2022	16	0.9	15.8	1.7	1	30%	4.9%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Khalil Shakir sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BUF room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4