Dawson Knox

Buffalo Bills · Tight endTE2

Over 19 games last season Dawson Knox averaged 2.2 receptions and 25 yards on 58% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.4

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

23%

red-zone role (+0.11)

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.4 projected
26 wk3	LAC	70%	3.8%	1	1	5	1	0	0	2.5 -1.5
26 wk2	DET	76%	7.1%	2	2	5	0	0	1	—
26 wk1	HOU	67%	3.6%	1	1	7	0	0	0	—
25 wk20	DEN	64%	12.8%	5	3	32	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	JAX	48%	8.6%	3	3	30	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	NYJ	5%	7.1%	2	2	24	0	0	1	—
25 wk17	PHI	63%	15.2%	5	5	30	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	CLE	68%	11.1%	2	1	10	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	NE	64%	15.4%	4	3	37	0	0	2	—
25 wk14	CIN	55%	25.9%	7	6	93	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 21	38%
5+ receptions	2 of 21	10%
7+ receptions	0 of 21	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 21	5%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 21	5%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 21	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 21	19%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.3	5.7	1.3	1	71%	4.9%
2025	19	2.2	25.2	3.0	4	58%	10.4%
2024	19	1.4	18.7	2.1	1	60%	7.1%
2023	14	1.7	14.2	2.8	3	57%	8.4%
2022	17	3.3	35.4	4.5	7	81%	13.7%
2021	17	3.3	40.3	4.7	11	88%	13.6%
2020	15	2.3	23.5	3.8	5	60%	9.8%
2019	16	1.8	25.1	3.2	2	64%	10.9%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Dawson Knox sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BUF room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Buffalo Bills roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4