Over 19 games last season Jackson Hawes averaged 0.8 receptions and 10 yards on 43% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
0.7
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
15
Anytime TD
0%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.7 projected
26 wk3
LAC
38%
3.8%
1
0
0
0
0.8 -0.8
26 wk2
DET
50%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
HOU
43%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
DEN
32%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
JAX
35%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
NYJ
29%
3.6%
1
1
0
0
—
25 wk17
PHI
28%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
CLE
64%
11.1%
2
2
26
0
—
25 wk15
NE
44%
3.8%
1
1
9
0
—
25 wk14
CIN
53%
3.7%
1
1
3
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 21
14%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0
44%
1.3%
2025
19
0.8
9.8
1.0
3
43%
3.9%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016