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Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Saquon Barkley averaged 2.4 receptions and 18 yards on 79% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.4
1.0 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
13
Rush attempts
12.3
Rushing yards
51
Anytime TD
22%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

31%030%119%210%35%45678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.4 projected
26 wk3CHI—8.0%21-2158201.4 -0.4
26 wk2TEN16%5.9%2111490—
26 wk1WAS71%9.1%21-315830—
25 wk19SF85%17.6%6325261060—
25 wk17BUF80%0.0%00019680—
25 wk16WAS77%6.9%200211321—
25 wk15LV57%16.7%321422781—
25 wk14LAC82%5.3%200201221—
25 wk13CHI93%6.7%20013560—
25 wk12DAL83%22.2%875210220—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions8 of 1942%
5+ receptions1 of 195%
7+ receptions1 of 195%
50+ receiving yards2 of 1911%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown8 of 1942%

Career by season

Saquon Barkley: snap share and target share by season020406080100201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.02.02.011.358.0044%7.7%
2025172.417.53.318.073.3979%12.4%
2024202.317.62.921.8125.22075%13.0%
2023142.920.04.317.668.71079%16.7%
2022183.623.14.717.479.21280%16.6%
2021133.220.24.412.545.6462%13.1%
202023.030.04.59.517.0050%11.5%
2019134.033.75.616.777.2883%14.9%
2018165.745.17.616.381.71583%20.5%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Saquon Barkley sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PHI room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Philadelphia Eagles roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4