Tee Higgins

Cincinnati Bengals · Wide receiverWR2

Over 15 games last season Tee Higgins averaged 3.9 receptions and 56 yards on 81% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.3

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

30%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.3 projected
26 wk3	PIT	93%	18.9%	7	6	90	1	3.8 +2.2
26 wk2	HOU	72%	32.3%	10	5	95	0	—
26 wk1	TB	72%	17.6%	6	3	59	0	—
25 wk18	CLE	87%	23.7%	9	6	67	1	—
25 wk17	ARI	57%	15.2%	5	4	59	0	—
25 wk16	MIA	62%	9.7%	3	3	53	1	—
25 wk14	BUF	73%	30.6%	11	6	92	2	—
25 wk12	NE	77%	17.6%	6	5	31	0	—
25 wk11	PIT	92%	20.5%	8	3	63	1	—
25 wk9	CHI	82%	20.0%	9	7	121	2	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	15 of 17	88%
5+ receptions	7 of 17	41%
7+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
50+ receiving yards	11 of 17	65%
75+ receiving yards	4 of 17	24%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 17	6%
Scored a touchdown	9 of 17	53%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.7	81.3	7.7	1	79%	22.9%
2025	15	3.9	56.4	6.5	11	81%	18.3%
2024	12	6.1	75.9	9.1	10	79%	26.1%
2023	12	3.5	54.7	6.3	5	74%	17.6%
2022	19	4.6	61.9	6.8	8	72%	19.0%
2021	18	5.1	77.8	7.8	8	79%	23.1%
2020	16	4.2	56.8	6.8	6	74%	20.4%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Tee Higgins sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CIN room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Cincinnati Bengals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4