Nico Collins

Houston Texans · Wide receiverWR1

Over 16 games last season Nico Collins averaged 4.6 receptions and 71 yards on 76% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.5

0.2 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.5 projected
26 wk1	BUF	72%	27.0%	10	7	75	1	7	1	—
25 wk19	PIT	56%	21.9%	7	3	21	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	LAC	68%	15.4%	4	3	57	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	LV	80%	26.5%	9	4	59	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	ARI	73%	15.4%	4	3	85	0	0	2	—
25 wk14	KC	81%	29.6%	8	4	121	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	IND	75%	31.2%	10	5	98	1	7	1	—
25 wk12	BUF	75%	10.7%	3	3	55	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	TEN	84%	25.0%	10	9	92	0	0	1	—
25 wk10	JAX	89%	34.1%	15	7	136	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	17 of 17	100%
5+ receptions	6 of 17	35%
7+ receptions	5 of 17	29%
50+ receiving yards	14 of 17	82%
75+ receiving yards	9 of 17	53%
100+ receiving yards	3 of 17	18%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 17	41%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	1	7.0	75.0	10.0	1.0	7.0	1	72%	27.0%
2025	16	4.6	71.1	7.9	0.1	0.9	7	76%	24.1%
2024	14	5.7	86.4	8.2	0.0	0.0	8	69%	24.9%
2023	17	5.4	85.9	7.4	0.1	0.6	9	69%	23.8%
2022	10	3.7	48.1	6.6	0.0	0.0	2	72%	19.2%
2021	14	2.4	31.9	4.3	0.0	0.0	1	59%	12.9%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Nico Collins sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the HOU room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Houston Texans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4