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Houston Texans
This is a committee. Nico Collins holds 27.0% of the targets, and the 13 tracked pass-catchers project for 25 receptions and 297 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins WR1 | 72% | 27.0% | 4.5 | 74 | who benefits |
| Xavier Hutchinson WR2 | 64% | 19.4% | 2.8 | 41 | who benefits |
| Jared Wayne WR3 | 48% | 10.9% | 1.7 | 27 | — |
| Jaylin Noel WR depth | 39% | 7.8% | 2.0 | 20 | — |
| Kayshon Boutte WR depth | 62% | 7.8% | 2.2 | 27 | — |
| Lewis Bond WR depth | 16% | 2.0% | 0.6 | 7 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz TE1 | 63% | 20.5% | 4.7 | 46 | who benefits |
| Foster Moreau TE2 | 43% | 8.5% | 1.5 | 17 | who benefits |
| Cade Stover TE3 | 28% | 0.9% | 0.5 | 4 | — |
| Marlin Klein TE depth | 10% | 0.9% | 0.4 | 6 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery RB1 | 55% | 6.7% | 1.9 | 16 | who benefits |
| Woody Marks RB2 | 45% | 6.2% | 1.9 | 14 | who benefits |
| British Brooks RB3 | 8% | 0.0% | 0.1 | -1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 20 carries and 77 rushing yards, with David Montgomery taking 56% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery RB | 11.2 | 45 | 4.02 | 44% |
| Woody Marks RB | 9.0 | 31 | 3.49 | 28% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.