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David Montgomery

Houston Texans · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season David Montgomery averaged 1.4 receptions and 11 yards on 37% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.9
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
16
Rush attempts
11.2
Rushing yards
45
Anytime TD
44%
red-zone role (+0.07)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

20%027%122%215%38%44%5678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.9 projected
26 wk3IND63%8.0%2215113302.1 -0.1
26 wk2CIN52%4.0%22146100—
26 wk1BUF49%8.1%331920603—
25 wk18CHI42%2.8%11138420—
25 wk17MIN34%6.9%221510250—
25 wk16PIT18%0.0%0004140—
25 wk15LA28%2.6%1007321—
25 wk14DAL31%3.2%11136601—
25 wk13GB38%7.4%22168321—
25 wk12NYG34%7.9%33195180—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions3 of 1916%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown8 of 1942%

Career by season

David Montgomery: snap share and target share by season02040608010020192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.316.02.312.334.3355%6.7%
2025171.411.31.79.342.1837%5.4%
2024152.422.72.512.853.51241%8.5%
2023171.39.51.815.270.51549%5.7%
2022162.119.82.512.650.1665%12.2%
2021133.223.23.917.365.3775%12.1%
2020163.427.44.316.268.81075%11.4%
2019161.611.62.215.155.6758%6.7%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If David Montgomery sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the HOU room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Houston Texans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4