Jaylin Noel

Houston Texans · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 19 games last season Jaylin Noel averaged 1.4 receptions and 15 yards on 24% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.0

0.6 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

14%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.0 projected
26 wk3	IND	26%	8.0%	2	2	17	1	8	0	2.5 -0.5
26 wk2	CIN	60%	10.0%	5	1	31	1	13	0	—
26 wk1	BUF	30%	5.4%	2	2	53	0	0	0	—
25 wk20	NE	8%	2.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	PIT	9%	3.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	IND	16%	3.6%	1	1	13	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	LAC	25%	15.4%	4	3	54	1	2	1	—
25 wk16	LV	14%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	ARI	16%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	KC	36%	7.4%	2	2	12	1	1	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	4 of 21	19%
5+ receptions	1 of 21	5%
7+ receptions	0 of 21	0%
50+ receiving yards	4 of 21	19%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 21	5%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 21	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 21	10%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.7	33.7	3.0	0	39%	7.8%
2025	19	1.4	15.4	1.9	2	24%	5.7%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Houston Texans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4