Kayshon Boutte

Houston Texans · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 18 games last season Kayshon Boutte averaged 2.3 receptions and 40 yards on 68% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.2

0.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

13%

red-zone role (+0.11)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.2 projected
26 wk3	IND	69%	8.0%	2	2	21	0	2.7 -0.7
26 wk2	CIN	72%	10.0%	5	3	37	0	—
26 wk1	BUF	46%	5.4%	2	1	21	0	—
25 wk22	SEA	73%	12.2%	5	1	21	0	—
25 wk21	DEN	62%	30.0%	6	1	6	0	—
25 wk20	HOU	83%	19.2%	5	3	75	1	—
25 wk19	LAC	53%	14.8%	4	4	66	0	—
25 wk18	MIA	58%	20.0%	4	2	24	0	—
25 wk16	BAL	58%	7.1%	3	1	16	0	—
25 wk15	BUF	75%	4.5%	1	1	30	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 20	40%
5+ receptions	2 of 20	10%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	6 of 20	30%
75+ receiving yards	4 of 20	20%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
Scored a touchdown	6 of 20	30%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.0	26.3	3.0	0	62%	7.8%
2025	18	2.3	39.9	3.7	7	68%	13.6%
2024	15	2.9	39.3	4.5	3	78%	15.6%
2023	5	0.4	3.8	1.4	0	33%	3.4%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Houston Texans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4