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If Xavier Hutchinson is out, who gets his targets?
The Houston Texans room absorbs +1.15 receptions, and Nico Collins takes the largest single share at +0.23. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz TE · 63% snaps | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.00 |
| Nico Collins WR · 72% snaps | 4.50 | 4.73 | +0.23 |
| Xavier Hutchinson WR · 64% snaps | 2.80 | — | OUT |
| Kayshon Boutte WR · 62% snaps | 2.20 | 2.43 | +0.23 |
| Jaylin Noel WR · 39% snaps | 2.00 | 2.23 | +0.23 |
| David Montgomery RB · 55% snaps | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Woody Marks RB · 45% snaps | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Jared Wayne WR · 48% snaps | 1.70 | 1.93 | +0.23 |
| Foster Moreau TE · 43% snaps | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Lewis Bond WR · 16% snaps | 0.60 | 0.83 | +0.23 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.584 | 1,537 | 11.16 |
| Tight ends | +0.175 | 1,080 | 3.33 |
| Backs | +0.113 | 1,011 | 2.00 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Xavier Hutchinson’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection