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XH

Xavier Hutchinson

Houston Texans · Wide receiverWR2

Over 19 games last season Xavier Hutchinson averaged 2.2 receptions and 26 yards on 59% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.8
0.7 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
41
Anytime TD
22%

What a realistic week looks like

10%019%121%218%313%48%55%63%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.8 projected
26 wk3IND54%24.0%63512403.2 -0.2
26 wk2CIN81%18.0%9337000—
26 wk1BUF56%16.2%6332000—
25 wk20NE84%28.9%13444000—
25 wk19PIT66%12.5%4221000—
25 wk18IND79%32.1%9584000—
25 wk17LAC48%11.5%3221180—
25 wk16LV49%5.9%214000—
25 wk15ARI30%7.7%2116000—
25 wk14KC40%7.4%200000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions9 of 2143%
5+ receptions2 of 2110%
7+ receptions0 of 210%
50+ receiving yards2 of 2110%
75+ receiving yards1 of 215%
100+ receiving yards0 of 210%
Scored a touchdown2 of 2110%

Career by season

Xavier Hutchinson: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.040.07.0064%19.4%
2025192.225.93.9359%11.6%
2024180.911.31.8047%6.1%
2023170.75.81.4032%4.4%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Xavier Hutchinson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the HOU room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Houston Texans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4