Dalton Schultz

Houston Texans · Tight endTE1

Over 19 games last season Dalton Schultz averaged 4.6 receptions and 44 yards on 69% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.7

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

28%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.7 projected
26 wk3	IND	54%	12.0%	3	3	30	0	5.2 -2.2
26 wk2	CIN	68%	28.0%	14	12	140	0	—
26 wk1	BUF	66%	21.6%	8	4	35	0	—
25 wk20	NE	16%	4.4%	2	2	47	0	—
25 wk19	PIT	79%	12.5%	4	3	12	0	—
25 wk18	IND	56%	14.3%	4	4	73	0	—
25 wk17	LAC	78%	15.4%	4	3	19	0	—
25 wk16	LV	71%	14.7%	5	5	35	1	—
25 wk15	ARI	79%	34.6%	9	8	76	1	—
25 wk14	KC	74%	14.8%	4	3	22	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	18 of 21	86%
5+ receptions	11 of 21	52%
7+ receptions	5 of 21	24%
50+ receiving yards	9 of 21	43%
75+ receiving yards	4 of 21	19%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 21	5%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 21	14%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	6.3	68.3	8.3	0	63%	20.5%
2025	19	4.6	44.0	5.9	3	69%	17.9%
2024	19	3.1	32.5	4.9	2	78%	15.2%
2023	17	3.8	42.1	5.7	6	74%	17.4%
2022	17	4.1	41.1	6.3	8	80%	18.9%
2021	18	4.7	49.8	6.2	8	81%	17.2%
2020	16	3.9	38.4	5.6	4	85%	14.6%
2019	16	0.1	0.4	0.1	0	10%	0.3%
2018	13	1.0	10.5	1.5	0	43%	4.0%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Dalton Schultz sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the HOU room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Houston Texans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4