Cade Stover

Houston Texans · Tight endTE3

Over 11 games last season Cade Stover averaged 1.4 receptions and 8 yards on 47% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.5

0.9 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

13%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.5 projected
26 wk3	IND	44%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.7 -0.7
26 wk2	CIN	10%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	BUF	30%	2.7%	1	1	-2	0	0	0	—
25 wk20	NE	67%	6.7%	3	1	2	2	6	0	—
25 wk19	PIT	53%	6.2%	2	2	13	1	4	0	—
25 wk18	IND	49%	7.1%	2	1	9	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	LAC	54%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	LV	51%	8.8%	3	2	7	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	ARI	61%	11.5%	3	3	22	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	KC	29%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	2 of 13	15%
5+ receptions	0 of 13	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 13	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 13	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 13	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 13	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 13	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.3	-0.7	0.3	0	28%	0.9%
2025	11	1.4	8.3	1.9	0	47%	6.2%
2024	16	1.2	10.1	1.6	1	41%	5.2%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Houston Texans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4