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Foster Moreau

Houston Texans · Tight endTE2

Over 11 games last season Foster Moreau averaged 0.6 receptions and 5 yards on 36% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.5
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
17
Anytime TD
26%
red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

30%030%120%211%35%45678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.5 projected
26 wk3IND57%16.0%42711.6 +0.4
26 wk2CIN29%4.0%22340—
26 wk1BUF44%5.4%22150—
25 wk16NYJ28%2.1%1150—
25 wk15CAR42%0.0%0000—
25 wk14TB45%5.0%11160—
25 wk13MIA38%5.9%22130—
25 wk12ATL29%2.3%1000—
25 wk10CAR62%11.5%32160—
25 wk9LA37%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 130%
5+ receptions0 of 130%
7+ receptions0 of 130%
50+ receiving yards0 of 130%
75+ receiving yards0 of 130%
100+ receiving yards0 of 130%
Scored a touchdown0 of 130%

Career by season

Foster Moreau: snap share and target share by season02040608010020192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.018.72.7143%8.5%
2025110.65.40.9036%3.0%
2024171.924.32.5569%8.4%
2023151.412.91.7154%5.0%
2022152.228.03.6278%10.6%
2021181.720.72.6363%7.5%
2020160.48.80.6223%1.7%
2019131.613.41.9545%6.6%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Foster Moreau sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the HOU room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Houston Texans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4