Woody Marks

Houston Texans · Running backRB2

Over 18 games last season Woody Marks averaged 1.4 receptions and 13 yards on 53% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.9

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

9.0

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

28%

red-zone AND third-down role (+0.17)

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.9 projected
26 wk3	IND	37%	4.0%	1	1	6	5	15	1	2.0 -1.0
26 wk2	CIN	48%	12.0%	6	5	27	8	8	0	—
26 wk1	BUF	51%	2.7%	1	1	-2	9	42	0	—
25 wk20	NE	68%	6.7%	3	2	19	14	17	0	—
25 wk19	PIT	71%	3.1%	1	0	0	19	112	1	—
25 wk18	IND	46%	10.7%	3	2	0	10	48	0	—
25 wk17	LAC	68%	7.7%	2	1	4	19	71	0	—
25 wk15	ARI	22%	3.8%	1	1	8	7	30	0	—
25 wk14	KC	87%	11.1%	3	2	8	26	68	1	—
25 wk13	IND	54%	3.1%	1	1	3	19	64	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	4 of 20	20%
5+ receptions	1 of 20	5%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 20	25%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.3	10.3	2.7	7.3	21.7	1	45%	6.2%
2025	18	1.4	12.6	2.2	12.7	46.2	6	53%	6.6%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Woody Marks sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the HOU room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Houston Texans roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4