Chris Godwin Jr.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Wide receiverWR3

Over 9 games last season Chris Godwin Jr. averaged 3.7 receptions and 40 yards on 71% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.5

0.2 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

12%

third-down role (+0.05)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.5 projected
26 wk3	MIN	62%	11.4%	4	3	25	0	0	0	3.9 -0.9
26 wk2	CLE	86%	9.1%	3	3	46	1	12	0	—
26 wk1	CIN	86%	14.8%	4	4	40	1	3	0	—
25 wk18	CAR	70%	4.5%	1	1	8	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	MIA	79%	18.2%	8	7	108	0	0	1	—
25 wk16	CAR	64%	24.0%	6	5	30	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	ATL	96%	15.6%	5	4	20	0	0	1	—
25 wk14	NO	69%	28.6%	8	5	55	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	ARI	66%	19.2%	5	3	78	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	LA	36%	12.9%	4	2	9	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	9 of 11	82%
5+ receptions	3 of 11	27%
7+ receptions	1 of 11	9%
50+ receiving yards	3 of 11	27%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 11	18%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 11	9%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 11	18%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	37.0	3.7	0	78%	11.8%
2025	9	3.7	40.0	5.7	2	71%	17.9%
2024	7	7.1	82.3	8.9	5	87%	28.2%
2023	19	4.8	58.4	7.5	4	81%	23.2%
2022	16	7.1	69.2	9.7	3	81%	21.9%
2021	14	7.0	78.8	9.1	6	86%	21.1%
2020	16	5.1	67.0	7.2	8	86%	19.9%
2019	14	6.1	95.2	8.6	9	92%	23.4%
2018	16	3.7	52.6	5.9	7	64%	15.5%
2017	16	2.1	32.8	3.4	1	40%	9.4%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Tampa Bay Buccaneers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4