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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a committee. Emeka Egbuka holds 21.0% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 23 receptions and 219 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka WR1 | 82% | 21.0% | 4.0 | 49 | who benefits |
| Ted Hurst III WR2 | 75% | 13.6% | 2.2 | 34 | who benefits |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR3 | 78% | 11.8% | 3.5 | 31 | — |
| Tez Johnson WR depth | 25% | 7.2% | 1.0 | 18 | — |
| Kameron Johnson WR depth | 5% | 1.5% | 0.1 | 0 | — |
| Jalen McMillan WR depth | 7% | 1.4% | 0.6 | 6 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton TE1 | 94% | 17.9% | 3.9 | 38 | who benefits |
| Payne Durham TE2 | 24% | 1.0% | 0.2 | 3 | — |
| Bauer Sharp TE3 | 5% | 0.0% | 0.2 | -0 | — |
| Ko Kieft TE depth | 2% | 0.0% | 0.2 | -0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving RB1 | 64% | 16.5% | 3.6 | 25 | who benefits |
| Kenny Gainwell RB2 | 42% | 10.0% | 2.6 | 17 | who benefits |
| Sean Tucker RB3 | 1% | 1.9% | 0.4 | -1 | — |
| Josh Williams RB depth | 6% | 0.0% | 0.5 | -1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 18 carries and 72 rushing yards, with Bucky Irving taking 82% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving RB | 14.7 | 56 | 3.79 | 24% |
| Kenny Gainwell RB | 3.2 | 16 | 5.03 | 13% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.