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Payne Durham

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Tight endTE2

Over 17 games last season Payne Durham averaged 0.1 receptions and 1 yards on 32% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.2
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
3
Anytime TD
3%

What a realistic week looks like

85%012%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.2 projected
26 wk3MIN55%2.9%10000.1 -0.1
26 wk2CLE6%0.0%0000—
26 wk1CIN12%0.0%0000—
25 wk18CAR27%4.5%1000—
25 wk17MIA13%0.0%0000—
25 wk16CAR22%0.0%0000—
25 wk15ATL65%0.0%0000—
25 wk14NO31%0.0%0000—
25 wk13ARI43%3.8%11110—
25 wk12LA16%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 190%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown0 of 190%

Career by season

Payne Durham: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.3024%1.0%
2025170.10.60.2032%0.8%
2024170.66.80.8239%2.3%
2023150.45.10.5015%1.4%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Tampa Bay Buccaneers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4