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If Cade Otton is out, who gets his targets?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers room absorbs +0.35 receptions, and Emeka Egbuka takes the largest single share at +0.07. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Cade Otton sitsEmeka Egbuka+0.1WR 82% snapsChris Godwin Jr.+0.1WR 78% snapsTed Hurst III+0.1WR 75% snapsTez Johnson+0.1WR 25% snapsJalen McMillan+0.1WR 7% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Emeka Egbuka WR · 82% snaps4.104.17+0.07
Cade Otton TE · 94% snaps3.90—OUT
Bucky Irving RB · 64% snaps3.603.60+0.00
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · 78% snaps3.503.57+0.07
Kenny Gainwell RB · 42% snaps2.602.60+0.00
Ted Hurst III WR · 75% snaps2.302.37+0.07
Tez Johnson WR · 25% snaps1.001.07+0.07
Jalen McMillan WR · 7% snaps0.600.67+0.07

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1072,1602.29
Tight ends+0.4921,0249.57
Backs-0.0451,259-0.92

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Cade Otton’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4