Over 16 games last season Cade Otton averaged 3.7 receptions and 36 yards on 94% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.9 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
3.9
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
38
Anytime TD
16%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.9 projected
26 wk3
MIN
94%
17.1%
6
3
56
0
4.1 -1.1
26 wk2
CLE
89%
18.2%
6
5
38
0
—
26 wk1
CIN
98%
18.5%
5
3
26
0
—
25 wk18
CAR
96%
40.9%
9
7
94
1
—
25 wk17
MIA
97%
9.1%
4
4
33
0
—
25 wk16
CAR
94%
8.0%
2
2
15
0
—
25 wk14
NO
81%
14.3%
4
3
19
0
—
25 wk13
ARI
97%
7.7%
2
2
9
0
—
25 wk12
LA
86%
22.6%
7
4
21
0
—
25 wk11
BUF
97%
18.5%
5
2
28
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
13 of 18
72%
5+ receptions
5 of 18
28%
7+ receptions
3 of 18
17%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 18
28%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 18
17%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 18
6%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
3.7
40.0
5.7
0
94%
17.9%
2025
16
3.7
35.8
5.1
1
94%
16.3%
2024
15
4.1
42.1
5.9
4
93%
18.0%
2023
19
3.2
32.1
4.5
5
96%
13.6%
2022
17
2.7
26.4
4.2
2
69%
9.1%
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016