Over 17 games last season Emeka Egbuka averaged 3.7 receptions and 55 yards on 78% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.0 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
4.0
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
49
Anytime TD
44%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.0 projected
26 wk3
MIN
74%
25.7%
9
5
62
0
0
0
4.0 +1.0
26 wk2
CLE
86%
15.2%
5
3
16
1
-3
1
—
26 wk1
CIN
86%
22.2%
6
5
63
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
CAR
58%
13.6%
3
1
8
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
MIA
58%
11.4%
5
3
20
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
CAR
56%
8.0%
2
1
40
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
ATL
64%
21.9%
7
4
64
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
NO
88%
32.1%
9
2
15
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
ARI
85%
30.8%
8
4
42
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
LA
90%
25.8%
8
3
32
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
15 of 19
79%
5+ receptions
5 of 19
26%
7+ receptions
1 of 19
5%
50+ receiving yards
8 of 19
42%
75+ receiving yards
4 of 19
21%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 19
16%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 19
32%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
4.3
47.0
6.7
1
82%
21.0%
2025
17
3.7
55.2
7.5
6
78%
23.6%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016