Kenny Gainwell

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Running backRB2

Over 18 games last season Kenny Gainwell averaged 4.3 receptions and 28 yards on 50% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.6

1.7 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

3.2

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

13%

red-zone AND third-down role (+0.13)

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.6 projected
26 wk3	MIN	46%	14.3%	5	2	14	3	-4	0	2.8 -0.8
26 wk2	CLE	35%	12.1%	4	3	5	2	10	0	—
26 wk1	CIN	46%	3.7%	1	1	3	5	15	0	—
25 wk19	HOU	56%	19.4%	6	4	26	6	20	0	—
25 wk18	BAL	67%	20.5%	9	8	64	5	10	1	—
25 wk17	CLE	68%	10.8%	4	3	12	7	26	0	—
25 wk16	DET	54%	18.4%	7	5	78	9	50	1	—
25 wk15	MIA	52%	25.9%	7	7	46	13	80	0	—
25 wk14	BAL	48%	21.2%	7	6	27	4	15	1	—
25 wk13	BUF	42%	13.6%	3	2	25	5	20	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	14 of 20	70%
5+ receptions	8 of 20	40%
7+ receptions	3 of 20	15%
50+ receiving yards	3 of 20	15%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 20	10%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	6 of 20	30%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.0	7.3	3.3	3.3	7.0	0	42%	10.0%
2025	18	4.3	28.4	5.1	6.7	30.9	8	50%	16.5%
2024	21	0.9	6.8	1.2	4.2	15.8	1	24%	4.7%
2023	17	1.9	11.4	2.3	5.2	21.6	2	41%	7.2%
2022	20	1.5	11.2	1.9	4.3	21.1	5	30%	6.4%
2021	17	2.2	17.8	3.2	4.1	17.5	7	29%	10.2%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Kenny Gainwell sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the TB room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Tampa Bay Buccaneers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4